Tool: What it’s Worth to Rank in Google, Yahoo and MSN

Want to know what it means to rank 4th in MSN? How about to rank 2nd in Yahoo? Or what about ranking 1st in Google and 3rd in MSN?

Well then grab the number of overture searches the term had last month and use our new “Expected Clicks by Rank in Google, Yahoo, MSN and Other Tool.

By combining the AOL User Search Data, Hitwise Search Engine Market Share and Overture Search Tool, you can now estimate with some certainty how many clicks to expect for ranking anywhere in any search engine for any term.

The AOL user search data has been harvested to determine the CTR (Click Through Rate) for ranking number 1 vs. number 2-10. The sample size is large enough and broad enough that we can infer that this average holds true across many verticals:

Results from:
Total Searches:9,038,794
Total Clicks: 4,926,623

Ranking Number 1 receives 42.1 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 2 receives 11.9 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 3 receives 8.5 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 4 receives 6.1 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 5 receives 4.9 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 6 receives 4.1 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 7 receives 3.4 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 8 receives 3.0 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 9 receives 2.8 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 10 receives 3.0 percent of click throughs.

The rest of the Long Tail (ranks 11-1000) = 11.3 percent of click throughs.

Search Engine Ranking #1: 2,075,765 clicks
Search Engine Ranking #2: 586,100 clicks = 3.5x less
Search Engine Ranking #3: 418,643 clicks = 4.9x less
Search Engine Ranking #4: 298,532 clicks = 6.9x less
Search Engine Ranking #5: 242,169 clicks = 8.5x less
Search Engine Ranking #6: 199,541 clicks = 10.4x less
Search Engine Ranking #7: 168,080 clicks = 12.3x less
Search Engine Ranking #8: 148,489 clicks = 14.0x less
Search Engine Ranking #9: 140,356 clicks = 14.8x less
Search Engine Ranking #10 147,551 clicks = 14.1x less

Search Engine Ranking 11+: 501,397 clicks

Now you may want to know the Market Share of the Search Engines Google, Yahoo, MSN and Everyone else: From Hitwise, we find:

The Search Market Share for Google: 60.2%
The Search Market Share for Yahoo: 22.5%
The Search Market Share for MSN: 11.80
The Market Share fore Everyone Else: 5.5%

Clickshare By Rank and Search Engine

Rank Google Yahoo MSN The Rest Total
1 25.36% 9.48% 4.97% 2.32% 42.13%
2 7.16% 2.68% 1.40% 0.65% 11.90%
3 5.12% 1.91% 1.00% 0.47% 8.50%
4 3.65% 1.36% 0.72% 0.33% 6.06%
5 2.96% 1.11% 0.58% 0.27% 4.92%
6 2.44% 0.91% 0.48% 0.22% 4.05%
7 2.05% 0.77% 0.40% 0.19% 3.41%
8 1.81% 0.68% 0.36% 0.17% 3.01%
9 1.72% 0.64% 0.34% 0.16% 2.85%
10 1.80% 0.67% 0.35% 0.16% 2.99%

The Overture Search Tool will tell you how many searches were on Yahoo for a given term. So, weighting market share and using Yahoo as a base, I extracted an Overture multiplier and we created the Expected Clicks By Rank in Google, Yahoo, MSN and Other Tool.

So let’s take something no one is searching for – something like “Free Porn” and look in the overture keyword selector tool. We find that 1,988,094 people searched for “Free Porn” last month in Yahoo. By using the “Expected Clicks By Rank in Google, Yahoo, MSN and Other Tool”, we can extrapolate that you can expect the following number of clicks based on rank:

Expected Clicks by Ranking For "Free Porn"

Rank Google Yahoo MSN The Rest
1            2,241,196       837,656       439,304       204,760
2              632,810       236,515       124,039        57,815
3              452,007       168,940        88,599        41,296
4              322,324       120,470        63,180        29,448
5              261,469        97,725        51,251        23,888
6              215,444        80,523        42,230        19,683
7              181,475        67,827        35,572        16,580
8              160,323        59,921        31,425        14,647
9              151,542        56,639        29,704        13,845
10              159,310        59,543        31,227        14,555

So why not give the “Expected Clicks By Rank in Google, Yahoo, MSN and Other Tool” a spin?

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24 Responses to “Tool: What it’s Worth to Rank in Google, Yahoo and MSN”

  1. [...] SEO Black Hat has a great post and tool up today that extrapolated clickshare by ranking percentages from the leaked AOL search data. Clickshare is the percentage of total search volume that clicks on a particular position in the SERPs. According to his data, 41.1% of all searchers click on the first result. I went ahead and graphed the distribution curve of these numbers, and a modified cumulative percentage curve, and it looks like our much beloved pareto curve. I said “modified” cumulative curve, because the first 10 positions only get a little over 80% of the total traffic, so the cumulative curve is based on only those searchers who click on a result in the top 10. (the top line is the cumulative curve, and the bottom line the distribution) The disproportionate amount of traffic the first and second positions get is a little surprising, and certainly makes it clear how important it is to not only be in the top 10, but in the top 2. Related Posts:Profitable Search Traffic Threshold [...]

  2. [...] Quadzilla from SEOBlackhat has made a great post on estimated traffic based on search engine: Google – Yahoo – MSN – and everything else; and placement in the SERP. He also followed it up with a free expected click by rank tool. [...]

  3. [...] SEO BlackHat extrapolated the figures from this CTR data and created a wonderful tool to estimate clicks for Google, Yahoo, and MSN. The tool for displaying the estimated CTR traffic is located in my previous post under Keyword Research. Technorati Tags: clickthrough rates, CTR, keyword research, seo [...]

  4. [...] El caso es que ahora ha surgido un interesante estudio sobre CTRs en las SERPs basado en esos datos. Así, para 9.038.794 búsquedas, y 4.926.623 clics, el CTR para las SERPs se reparte como sigue en función del puesto de la web en la SERP: [...]

  5. [...] SEO Black Hat has dug into the AOL data and merged it with Overture results to determine how many visits you can expect from any keyword at any rank. He has a great write-up abot click-through ratios and his methodology. [...]

  6. [...] General Aug 12 at 4:31 am by tdh -SEO Black Hat has devised a nice little tool for finding out where you rank in various search engines, and added the estimated click rate it’ll give you. I’ll let someone else delve into how accurate these numbers are, but in either case it’s an interesting read, and a tool most of the bloggers out there should try out. [...]

  7. [...] SEO Blackhat is reporting an interesting analysis enabled by the AOL search data that shows the click through rate (CTR) a search result by position. [...]

  8. [...] Tool: What it’s Worth to Rank in Google, Yahoo and MSN SEO Black Hat: SEO Blog (tags: seo tools 2do) [...]

  9. rxbbx says:

    This is a nice tool.. as normal people click more at the 10Th place.. do you update the tool every month?

    Greets

    Great tool… presented by Quad :) greets from holland

  10. [...] Tras la tempestad de la “fuga de datos” de AOL de hace unos días, ahora la gente aplica y hace estudios sobre ellos… como por ejemplo el que llega desde SEO Black Hat con los datos de CTR en los resultados de búsqueda. Según el estudio, los clicks quedan así: [...]

  11. [...] Tras la tempestad de la “fuga de datos” de AOL de hace unos días, ahora la gente aplica y hace estudios sobre ellos… como por ejemplo el que llega desde SEO Black Hat con los datos de CTR en los resultados de búsqueda. Según el estudio, los clicks quedan así: [...]

  12. QuadsZilla says:

    Quick update. I finally checked the numbers from the tool against actual SERPs. The result is . . .
    It’s not even close. The numbers the tool spits out are way higher than what you’ll really get.
    :(

    For starters I didn’t take into consideration that 9,038,794 searches produced those 4,926,623 clicks. So right off the bat I overshot by almost half. But that still didn’t bring the numbers into alignment for the phrases I checked: still too high. If there is interest, I’m pretty sure I can match 10 million of my searches vs where they rank in the search engines.

    Part of the problem is overture. Part of the roblem may be that people start out with a broad query like “Free porn” and then narrow the search with qualifers. The numbers probably fall more into alignment as the phrases more closely match exactly what the searcher is looking for.

    The clickshare graph should be as accurate as the market share numbers.

  13. [...] More from the SEO Blackhat post-"Want to know what it means to rank 4th in MSN? How about to rank 2nd in Yahoo? Or what about ranking 1st in Google and 3rd in MSN? [...]

  14. [...] Recently there was much online hype with AOL making public its search data for the period of three months. AOL tried to correct this mistake by withdrawing the data asap, but search marketers were fast to grasp the value of the information and make it available online – you can download the AOL search data here. In fact I have seen free and useful online tools based on this data. See a sample here. [...]

  15. [...] 45 % des clics se font sur le premier résultat de recherche, le second ne totalisant déjà plus que 13 % des clics et ainsi de suite ; [...]

  16. [...] 45 % des clics se font sur le premier résultat de recherche, le second ne totalisant déjà plus que 13 % des clics et ainsi de suite ; [...]

  17. skillfull says:

    yeah its too high by a loooooooong mile ;)

  18. perry says:

    Ranking Number 1 receives 42.1 percent of click throughs.
    Ranking Number 2 receives 11.9 percent of click throughs.
    Ranking Number 3 receives 8.5 percent of click throughs.
    Ranking Number 4 receives 6.1 percent of click throughs.
    Ranking Number 5 receives 4.9 percent of click throughs.
    Ranking Number 6 receives 4.1 percent of click throughs.
    Ranking Number 7 receives 3.4 percent of click throughs.
    Ranking Number 8 receives 3.0 percent of click throughs.
    Ranking Number 9 receives 2.8 percent of click throughs.
    Ranking Number 10 receives 3.0 percent of click throughs.

    I’m sorry, but that isn’t even close to being believable, and not all is being told.

    I have clicked on several links throughout page one. Sometimes on page two. And so have you! I have asked a lot of people if they stopped after clicking on the first one. The answer, every single time was “no.”

    Look at all the porn sites out there. You think all those guys are going to stop at the first link and not click on the others? Nope. How ’bout all those “funny news” and “funny pcitures” sites? Nope. What about singles looking for dating and sex advice? Not even close.

    And how ’bout during the holidays, and fathers and mothers day? You think many of those shoppers are going to click on JUST one link?

    Sorry, but those figures aren’t right. Not even close.

    So there is much more to that “research” than meets the eye.

  19. [...] SEOBlackhat’s QuadsZilla has posted some time ago about what was worth to rank in Google, Yahoo and MSN. His calculations indicated that each step towards the wholy grail you make, the higher the rank the click through you would experience, except for moving from 10th to 9th when you actually see a little drom in click throughs. Here’s QuadsZilla’s table. Ranking Number 1 receives 42.1 percent of click throughs. Ranking Number 2 receives 11.9 percent of click throughs. Ranking Number 3 receives 8.5 percent of click throughs. Ranking Number 4 receives 6.1 percent of click throughs. Ranking Number 5 receives 4.9 percent of click throughs. Ranking Number 6 receives 4.1 percent of click throughs. Ranking Number 7 receives 3.4 percent of click throughs. Ranking Number 8 receives 3.0 percent of click throughs. Ranking Number 9 receives 2.8 percent of click throughs. Ranking Number 10 receives 3.0 percent of click throughs. [...]

  20. klaus says:

    Thanks for the tool. However, and I am sorry to bring the bad news but OVT is dead. There’s no such thing as “the number of overture searches the term had last month”. “Last month” is May/2007, I think.

    Also you are giving away the full source code…

  21. [...] This is great stuff, aggregated data using a couple of sources from SEOBlackHat. The data is 2 years old, but if anything the numbers have skewed more to the top as searchers have gotten more savvy, using more defined searches thus returning more relevant results: [...]

  22. [...] When you think about it, though, search engines rank pretty much the same way. The top 10 positions in a given SERP will garner 88.7% of all clicks. Positions 11-1000 in the SERPs account for only 11.7% of clicks (breakdown). [...]