Comments on: On The Verge of Financial Crisis http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/ Tired of useless Top 10 Lists for ranking in Google? Looking for effective and insightful info? SEO Black Hat Blog offers articles on Blackhat SEO, Linkbait & Link Spamming. And if you need to escape White Hat SEO Whiners, check out he Private Black Hat Search Engine Optimization Forum. Fri, 04 Feb 2011 05:07:23 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Got Questions about The Economic Crisis and Internet Businesses? http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-8959 Got Questions about The Economic Crisis and Internet Businesses? Thu, 23 Oct 2008 18:06:22 +0000 http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/#comment-8959 [...] Who could have predicted that we were on the verge of a financial crisis last year? [...] [...] Who could have predicted that we were on the verge of a financial crisis last year? [...]

]]> By: Garratt Homes http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-8076 Garratt Homes Sun, 23 Mar 2008 19:18:10 +0000 http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/#comment-8076 The first post was in August 2007. Is it agreed that we are now in a Financial Crisis? 2008 will be the year when this surely takes hold. The first post was in August 2007. Is it agreed that we are now in a Financial Crisis? 2008 will be the year when this surely takes hold.

]]> By: Andrew Johnson http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-7195 Andrew Johnson Thu, 23 Aug 2007 23:55:43 +0000 http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/#comment-7195 If this was Fark.com, this post would have an "obvious" tag. I never could figure out why investors couldn't be bothered to do basic math. I live in one of those high risk markets, and I am renting, not owning. Some of my friends can't figure out why. Gee. The curve ball that even the common sense guys were not anticipating is the tightening of credit and lending. People with good credit are having difficulty getting mortgages right now. Throw in speculation about a government crackdown on lenders, with new and more restrictive laws involved, and things really look questionable. The final push upwards in the housing market was done by those with liar loans (i.e. no proof of income to get a mortgage) and speculators. Those are fundamentals to cash out on, not buy in. There are other global real estate markets that are even hotter and have appreciated more than the US -- the UK specifically. Common sense is telling me watch the hell out. If this was Fark.com, this post would have an “obvious” tag. I never could figure out why investors couldn’t be bothered to do basic math. I live in one of those high risk markets, and I am renting, not owning. Some of my friends can’t figure out why. Gee.

The curve ball that even the common sense guys were not anticipating is the tightening of credit and lending. People with good credit are having difficulty getting mortgages right now. Throw in speculation about a government crackdown on lenders, with new and more restrictive laws involved, and things really look questionable. The final push upwards in the housing market was done by those with liar loans (i.e. no proof of income to get a mortgage) and speculators. Those are fundamentals to cash out on, not buy in.

There are other global real estate markets that are even hotter and have appreciated more than the US — the UK specifically. Common sense is telling me watch the hell out.

]]> By: sandloka http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-7161 sandloka Mon, 20 Aug 2007 08:42:26 +0000 http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/#comment-7161 Areas that have been saturated with new build properties over a short space of time will probably see the worst of it. Over supply is an investors biggest problem. Areas that have been saturated with new build properties over a short space of time will probably see the worst of it. Over supply is an investors biggest problem.

]]> By: meegwell2 http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-7154 meegwell2 Fri, 17 Aug 2007 19:28:56 +0000 http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/#comment-7154 one flaw in the original post is the fact that the 1300 or 1600 rent payment is a loss, equivelent to 3-4% of home value. The gample is will your home lose 3-4% annualy over the long run (15 or 30 years, depending on your friends mortgage as well as incorporating interest on the note) - bottom line is there is a lot more involved in this type of decision then the simple scenario stated. Assuming the investor would not make the poor decsion to get out of the investemnt when it is down (and therefore only have a 'good' result if terminating early): you want to consider asset gains/losses over the lenth of the note minus interest, taxes, and necessary upkeep vs your opportunity lost which is the down payment * the low risk rate (savings) minus the monthly rental payments. one flaw in the original post is the fact that the 1300 or 1600 rent payment is a loss, equivelent to 3-4% of home value. The gample is will your home lose 3-4% annualy over the long run (15 or 30 years, depending on your friends mortgage as well as incorporating interest on the note) – bottom line is there is a lot more involved in this type of decision then the simple scenario stated.

Assuming the investor would not make the poor decsion to get out of the investemnt when it is down (and therefore only have a ‘good’ result if terminating early): you want to consider asset gains/losses over the lenth of the note minus interest, taxes, and necessary upkeep vs your opportunity lost which is the down payment * the low risk rate (savings) minus the monthly rental payments.

]]> By: jeff419 http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-7153 jeff419 Fri, 17 Aug 2007 17:47:29 +0000 http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/#comment-7153 Putting money in a bank account, high interest or not, is a bad idea. You'll never keep up with inflation. Precious metals such as gold and silver are a good idea. Other currencies could work well too. Putting money in a bank account, high interest or not, is a bad idea. You’ll never keep up with inflation.

Precious metals such as gold and silver are a good idea. Other currencies could work well too.

]]> By: esoos http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-7152 esoos Fri, 17 Aug 2007 15:07:39 +0000 http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/#comment-7152 I grew up in Hawaii, and back in the late 80s lots of Japanese investors flush with cash were coming over and buying up all the real estate and building luxury homes and resorts everywhere, generally making a mess of the place. Luckily (for us, but not them) all their cash dried up before they could do too much damage. Now the whole scene is replaying itself again, but instead of coming from Japan, they're from California. But it looks like that may soon be coming to an end too. I grew up in Hawaii, and back in the late 80s lots of Japanese investors flush with cash were coming over and buying up all the real estate and building luxury homes and resorts everywhere, generally making a mess of the place. Luckily (for us, but not them) all their cash dried up before they could do too much damage.

Now the whole scene is replaying itself again, but instead of coming from Japan, they’re from California. But it looks like that may soon be coming to an end too.

]]> By: Lyme http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-7151 Lyme Fri, 17 Aug 2007 13:27:54 +0000 http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/#comment-7151 When TV shows showing bartenders who know NOTHING about remodeling making 40K in a week flipping a condo, you know the market is peaking. When TV shows showing bartenders who know NOTHING about remodeling making 40K in a week flipping a condo, you know the market is peaking.

]]> By: QuadsZilla http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-7150 QuadsZilla Fri, 17 Aug 2007 13:27:38 +0000 http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/#comment-7150 I'm not talking about just San Fransisco. San Jose, CA Honolulu, HI San Diego, CA New York, NY Orange County, CA San Francisco, CA Newark, NJ Los Angeles, CA Sarasota, FL Riverside, CA Seattle, WA Miami, FL Washington, DC Portland, OR Orlando, FL Las Vegas, NV Long Island, NY Edison, NJ Reno, NV Cape Coral, FL Sacramento, CA Chicago, IL Phoenix, AZ Milwaukee, WI Baltimore, MD Tucson, AZ Boston, MA Richmond, VA Charlotte, NC Virginia Beach, VA Tampa, FL Salt Lake City, UT Minneapolis, MN Boise City, ID Philadelphia, PA Denver, CO Raleigh, NC Nashville, TN Jacksonville, FL all have price to rent ratios greater than .9 That means the ROI is under 6.5%. The price to borrow exceeds 6.5% even for those with the best credit. I’m not talking about just San Fransisco.

San Jose, CA
Honolulu, HI
San Diego, CA
New York, NY
Orange County, CA
San Francisco, CA
Newark, NJ
Los Angeles, CA
Sarasota, FL
Riverside, CA
Seattle, WA
Miami, FL
Washington, DC
Portland, OR
Orlando, FL
Las Vegas, NV
Long Island, NY
Edison, NJ
Reno, NV
Cape Coral, FL
Sacramento, CA
Chicago, IL
Phoenix, AZ
Milwaukee, WI
Baltimore, MD
Tucson, AZ
Boston, MA
Richmond, VA
Charlotte, NC
Virginia Beach, VA
Tampa, FL
Salt Lake City, UT
Minneapolis, MN
Boise City, ID
Philadelphia, PA
Denver, CO
Raleigh, NC
Nashville, TN
Jacksonville, FL

all have price to rent ratios greater than .9

That means the ROI is under 6.5%. The price to borrow exceeds 6.5% even for those with the best credit.

]]> By: ChrisWebPub http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-7149 ChrisWebPub Fri, 17 Aug 2007 12:19:06 +0000 http://seoblackhat.com/2007/08/16/on-the-verge-of-financial-crisis/#comment-7149 Ya, it is definitely a regional thing and it does annoy me when people think the entire country is like the SF Bay Area. Just because houses there appreciated like crazy and people were doing interest-only mortgages to buy them and them counting on the monthly appreciation and refinancing or flipping (betting on continued huge appreciations) doesn't mean the entire country went crazy like that. Real estate is still a good, safe, investment in most areas. People will always need places to live. Your plan just needs to be buying it and holding it and making rental income. In 10 years you can refinance it and get a nice tax free check from the bank, and that should be your goal. Not flipping it in one year's time for a profit. If a housing value decrease over 2 years would cause you serious financial problems, don't buy, you're basically gambling. If I were a young single guy I'd buy a duplex in an area where rental units don't go vacant, and then rent out one half and live in the other. Ya, it is definitely a regional thing and it does annoy me when people think the entire country is like the SF Bay Area. Just because houses there appreciated like crazy and people were doing interest-only mortgages to buy them and them counting on the monthly appreciation and refinancing or flipping (betting on continued huge appreciations) doesn’t mean the entire country went crazy like that.

Real estate is still a good, safe, investment in most areas. People will always need places to live. Your plan just needs to be buying it and holding it and making rental income. In 10 years you can refinance it and get a nice tax free check from the bank, and that should be your goal. Not flipping it in one year’s time for a profit. If a housing value decrease over 2 years would cause you serious financial problems, don’t buy, you’re basically gambling.

If I were a young single guy I’d buy a duplex in an area where rental units don’t go vacant, and then rent out one half and live in the other.

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